How Much Dangerous Is Taiwan Dispute

It was obvious that after USA's withdrawal from Middle East and West Asia the world would see such arrangements which on the one hand going to disturb the equilibrium between big economies and on the other hand it would also effect under developed economies such as Pakistan. Arab countries especially KSA and Turkey deserves to be applauded because of their instant decisions according to the changing situation. 

Recently one of the reputable politician and Speaker of the US House of Parliamentarians Nancy Pelosi visited Tehran during which she also met the President of the country. On this visit, Chinese President Shi Jinping reacted by saying, "US shouldn't play with fire". After that China started huge military preparations at the Taiwan border and showcased their power. But after somedays they called off because the purpose had been achieved. Taiwan is the part of China which US also recognizes as "One State, Two Systems" policy. Meanwhile, with the conferences of G-7, NATO and QUAD FORUM President Biden's visit to middle easy has given a new diplomatic color to Taiwan matter. Although the level of patience and tolerance China has shown to solve this kind of sensitive matter which is saving our region from another disastrous war deserves some appreciation and commendable thing is that US has also kept this matter in diplomatic limits and they are not crossing the line.

Taiwan is an important area of Indo-China, whose people has been succeeded in making their own government at the time of Chinese independence under the leadership of Kuomintang, they are always supported by the US and Western powers, whereas China always considered it as their part. They are running government in Taiwan under the policy of  "One State, Two Systems" like Hong Kong, which is termed as patience policy of China which means just watch, be patient and avoid military attacks. Taiwan is located at the meeting point of East and South China seas in the northwestern pacific ocean. It also shares border with Japan and Philippines. It has the population of 23 crore and it has considered as one of the most overpopulated regions in the world. Taipei is the capital of the country. After China became the permanent member of UNO, since then Taiwan is effected by a kind of political loneliness. Until now only 13 countries have recognized Taiwan in which US is not included but it still ensures it's safety. Like China Taiwan also proceeded and got economical success even the term "Asian Tiger" was first used for Taiwan. They and China shares huge unrest among them but until few years back it was only limited to rules and politics. But now this matter has been awoken again. Their big companies have direct relations between them but we didn't see that even after dispute China had imposed any kind of ban in dealing with US on Taiwan unlike of what Europe did with Russia after Ukraine war. Offices of top global companies are present in Taiwan and they have transferred investment worth of billion dollars in tech to China. According to stats,30 flight operations takes place on daily basis between these countries. It means that we can say that both countries have good economical relation. Real issue is US, who has put all its attention on Indo-China. Considering this, two points can be said here; first both the big fishes (US and China) are not ready to tolerate each other and if its like this than how are they going to give political space to each other so that political matter can be resolved. Higher authorities of US and China succeeded to find a peaceful way to solve the problems whenever they met till now. Its not easy to understand the politics of South East Asia for the residents warm & cold African and Asian regions. This part had seen the destruction at the time of World War II, it also faced the heart wrenching incident of atom bomb attacks. But now the locals living here are unfamiliar to war. Mild temperament people of mild weather region usually don't like being angry all the time. They started their journey of development in 60s with Japan and today their region is considered as one of the most richest and developed regions in the world. 

The question is that why Taiwan has significant importance for US even when they considers it as a part of China. America's decision to focus more on Indo-China rather than other parts of the world wasn't a short term quick decision. These decision were taken even before the Bush era and at least five presidents worked on this policy. And now after they have fully implemented this decision, the biggest question for US policy makers is that how're they going to tackle a strong economical and powerful military state of China. Maybe they faced the same question 80 years ago on the Japan matter. They found the answer in atom bomb at that time, but now the world has changed. There are not one but three powerful nations in the region and all got nuclear assistance. If we include India on the basis of QUAD FORUM than it would be four great powers. US policy makers have got experience in this region in the form of Japan and they know the consequences, so they want to take a safe way. But its true that policy makers are really concerned about the rapid Chinese growth. China has created problems for US in every matter from space to earth. Still both the powers are relying more on agreements and economical settlements rather than using military like president Putin of Russia. China and US are the world's biggest economical partners and like that both the allies of US, Japan and India are also China's strategic partners. It is not possible to end this relation immediately for both the giants. President Putin has tested the Europe's dependence on Russia for oil and gas by attacking on Ukraine. Now everyone knows which kind of bog they're in. On the one hand they received curse from all over the world for being the reason of increased inflation, also here in Pakistan people are greatly affected by inflation. We're waiting for the ships filled from wheat for months now from Ukraine but its not reaching. This is also a question that why countries like Pakistan should suffers from the aggressive diplomacy of Putin.

Analyst are discussing two faces of Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. Mid term elections are near in US and president Biden has still not gotten any kind of significant popularity among the public. Maybe its due to covid 19, because he was blamed for this at last and the second main reason is their exit from Afghanistan, even though we can termed it as government strategy, but the normal impression from that step was that it seemed like their exit was in a hurry position and a power like US failed in gaining any major success there. Third reason is Ukraine war, in which no doubt Biden is taking a firm step against Russia but still US and other western countries are facing huge wave of inflation due to this war. No doubt that uneasy decisions has to be taken in these kind of wars which shares global impact but after all its normal public who always faces the financial and economical effects. Like World War II, Ukraine war is also happening 6000 miles away from US at the east most part of Europe, but due to globalization and trading relations US got rapidly affected by it. Petrol is getting sold on 2 USD per liter there which is around 650 pkr. Trump's increasing popularity is creating another problem for Biden and no matter if its right or wrong, but analyst are predicting Trump's victory in mid term elections. This was the back story, due to which the most powerful personality of democratic party had to visit Taiwan. On reply China imposed several bans on Nancy but it doesn't matter because she isn't doing any kind of business with China. Now let's see the foreign or we can say the military aspect of this matter. American analysts was saying this again and again after the Ukraine war that Shi Jinping due to his relation with Putin could take an aggressive step towards Taiwan to put pressure on Biden. Virtual meeting of Shi Jinping and Biden didn't go well on Taiwan issue six months ago. Harshness was also seen in the American statement related cyber attacks for China. But they were bound to avoid any military collapse due to their strategic relations, on the contrary the margin of trade between these two countries is increasing day by day. Another prepollency was that China was declared as the number one danger and most rapidly growing military power by NATO last year, but two months ago in NATO Administrative Conference held in Spain; Russia has been termed as number one enemy. For China,  if the NATO's behaviour wasn't all good but it wasn't that bad even. It was said that there growing military power should be looked after. Now after seeing both the aspects we can have our say how far this Taiwan matter would go in future. It is obvious that China would never change its view on Taiwan but whether they would want to disturb their strategic relations with US, Japan and India by implementing Putin's aggressive policy here. See that west declared this Russian attack as the biggest after World War II, and to tackle with China; instead of military tactics US and allies are working on a development project to confront Chinese "Belt & Road Initiative", but still they don't have any proper plan just 6 billion dollars investment is set to be done. QUAD FORUM in which huge economies are included like Japan, India, US and Australia is also a matter of concern for China, because the main policy behind its formation was to limit China. But all the QF countries are involved in strategic partnership worth of billion dollars with China. First priority of these countries would be to not get involved in this matter. Recent activities in Taiwan got attention in western media maybe just due to Ukraine war otherwise military exercises and jets crossing the borderline are usually not a sign of war.